Resilience in the face of the climate catastrophe: Interview with Sven Plöger

Mr Plöger, how do you manage to explain scientific topics and complex meteorological phenomena in a way that is easy to understand?

Sven Plöger: I see myself as a translator of science. My aim is to translate scientific findings into a language that everyone can understand - without losing scientific precision. I am not an ideologue or missionary, but try to convey an attitude through entertainment. Because with a serious topic like climate change, it is important not just to paint dystopian or apocalyptic scenarios, but to show that we still have options for action. We should recognise these as opportunities and use them for our future and that of our children.

To what extent has weather forecasting changed in recent decades?

Advances in technology and computer modelling have revolutionised weather forecasting. In the past, accurate forecasts were only possible for a few days, but today we can make quite reliable forecasts for up to ten days. In addition, improvements in satellite and radar technology have significantly improved our ability to recognise extreme weather events at an early stage.

In your opinion, what current events and developments in recent years are influencing the perception of and approach to climate change?

The multitude of crises, such as the US election, corona, financial and energy crises and the war in Europe, have led to the issue of climate change being pushed into the background for many people. This is problematic because the physical developments we are seeing today confirm exactly what science predicted 30 or even 40 years ago. And the energy we are putting into the system is leading to more extreme weather events, which is not surprising from a physical point of view.

What are the exact causes of the large number of dangerous weather extremes?

The warming of the oceans is particularly worrying for me. Their surface layer has warmed disruptively in the past two years, which worries me greatly. 71 percent of the Earth's surface is water, and 90 percent of the energy we put into the system through our behaviour is stored in the ocean. The warmer the oceans get, the less buffer they have and the more energy they release, leading to more extreme weather events.

More and more people with limited background knowledge are expressing their opinions and concerns about sustainable thinking and action and climate protection via social media. How do you personally deal with this criticism?

That is indeed a challenge! The level of education in physics in our country is - to put it mildly - ‘not good enough’. This is why climate research deniers are often able to unsettle an entire society with the stupidest possible contributions. This can be summarised as ‘ignorance is powerlessness’, a twisted version of the famous sentence by Sir Francis Bacon, who once said ‘knowledge is power’. For me, it is therefore important to keep referring to the facts and to communicate scientific findings clearly and comprehensibly.

Are you regularly invited by event organisers and companies to speak as a keynote speaker about extreme weather and its consequences and to give your audience tips on the topic of resilience?

Yes, I get a lot of requests from companies. I'm pleased about that, because it's an opportunity to bring the topic to companies in a fact-based way. SMEs and family businesses in particular are often very interested and have a good sense of what is currently going in the wrong direction and often has been for several years. They try to sensitise their descendants and initiate change. Sometimes I have the feeling that business is further ahead than politics when it comes to these issues.

How can people be motivated to recognise positive developments and become more aware of them?

We often focus too much on the negative, especially in media coverage. It is important to also look at the things that work successfully. We need to change our perspective and focus on well-founded optimism. This means emphasising the positive approaches and successes and drawing motivation for further steps. The key is to meet people where they are and show them the relevance of these issues in their own lives. Everyone has different life situations and opportunities to act. It's about educating and raising awareness without being preachy. If we communicate the facts clearly and understandably and at the same time show that each individual can make a difference, we can encourage more people to take action.

Why is bad news often followed more closely than good news?

The ‘bad news is good news’ phenomenon is part of our human nature. Studies show that people need to be praised five to ten times to be able to cope with criticism. We have a huge focus on the negative and find it difficult to perceive positive news. If something tragic happens in their street, everyone is alert and wants to know what's going on. If someone says a clever sentence, it rarely interests anyone. Overcoming this perspective is a challenge that I face in my presentations by also telling stories that have been successful.

Is there a story that you find particularly impressive?

Yes, there is one. My Australian friend Tony Rinaudo won the Right Livelihood Award, sometimes referred to as the ‘alternative Nobel Prize’, in 2018 after developing the Farmer Managed Natural Regeneration (FMNR) method. During his research on site, Tony discovered that many seemingly dead plants still had a connection to the groundwater. This was the basis for his sustainable, later award-winning concept. By pruning competing branches and a development aid project, a new forest was able to grow in the affected area after eleven years. The soil cooled, water sources emerged and the people were able to farm again and improve their living conditions. This is a success story in which a ‘small sustainable world’ has been created. 

How can we change our perspective on positive developments?

It is crucial to overcome evolutionary learning here and there. We are ‘programmed’ to focus primarily on dangers and risks and not necessarily on the good things. For example, 10,000 years ago, anyone who only enjoyed the berries that were available for a fruitful life and overlooked the sabre-toothed tiger had lost out. When it comes to climate protection and the transformation it requires, we must now learn to see and promote positive developments above all. This means reporting on successful projects and showing that everyone can make a contribution. Perfection is not necessary, every small step counts. There are many actions we can take, but to tackle the root cause of our climate crisis, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and therefore increasing renewable energy and promoting sustainable lifestyles is at the centre. We also need to invest in adapting to the inevitable effects of climate change, for example by building infrastructure that can withstand extreme weather events.

How do you counter the polarising argument that there is no point in Germany getting involved in climate protection and sustainability if large countries such as China, India and the USA don't join in?

This argument is understandable, but it doesn't help anyone. It leads to the unfair and unhelpful statement for future generations: we are doing nothing because the others are doing nothing. And then? We only emit just under two percent of greenhouse gases, but that puts us in seventh place out of 195 countries, which means 188 countries are better than us. Or with regard to China: there are more Chinese than Germans, exactly 17 times as many. If there were as many Germans as Chinese, we would have to increase our emissions seventeenfold and would have exactly the same emissions as China! If we were to blame the products that are manufactured there for us on us rather than the Chinese, then we would be even worse than the Middle Kingdom. If we do not understand that a global crisis must be tackled globally, then we will fail and have to admit to ourselves that we are not mature enough to solve this self-inflicted problem. That is why: Germany has a major responsibility and also a major lever to effect change.

How can the urgency of climate protection be better communicated?

It is important to understand the long-term benefits. Economic studies show that every euro that is not invested in climate protection has to be paid back later with two to eleven euros. We need to recognise that current investments are necessary to minimise future costs.

How can we generate enthusiasm for transformation and change?

We need to focus on the opportunities and possibilities and start focussing our energy on positive change again and again. Germany has always been a country of inventors and innovators. We need to continue this tradition and generate enthusiasm for new ideas. It's not about being perfect, but about continuously taking small steps in the right direction.

In view of the natural disasters, what is your message to society, politics and the economy?

We have to accept reality and act accordingly. The laws of physics do not change, no matter how much we wish for a different world. Reality will always win against our wishes. It's about taking responsibility and enabling future generations to have a future worth living. That requires an attitude, expertise and the willingness to tackle the necessary changes.